The Buffalo Bills will have their hands full at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts this Sunday, October 2nd when they take on the New England Patriots in a big AFC East showdown. The Bills managed to win their first game of the season last week when they upset the Arizona Cardinals 33 -18 at home. The win improved the Bills’ record to 1-2 on the season and they share second place in the division with the Jets and Dolphins. The Patriots went to 3-0 with a 27-0 drubbing of the Houston Texans at home and sit in top spot in the division.
Bills vs Patriots Betting Trends:
- Team record: 1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo’s last 6 games on the road
- Buffalo is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
- Buffalo is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
- Buffalo is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New England
- The total has gone OVER in 7 of Buffalo’s last 10 games when playing New England
- Buffalo is 2-23 SU in its last 25 games when playing New England
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo’s last 7 games when playing on the road against New England
- Buffalo is 1-14 SU in its last 15 games when playing on the road against New England
New England Patriots:
- Team record: 3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS
- New England is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England’s last 5 games at home
- New England is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games at home
- The total has gone OVER in 7 of New England’s last 10 games when playing Buffalo
- New England is 23-2 SU in its last 25 games when playing Buffalo
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England’s last 7 games when playing at home against Buffalo
- New England is 14-1 SU in its last 15 games when playing at home against Buffalo
- New England is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Buffalo
Buffalo Bills – A Closer Look:
The Buffalo Bills finally got on track last week with their 33-18 triumph over Arizona after losing to Baltimore and the New York Jets in their opening two contests. Buffalo is now 1-2 both ATS and straight up. The passing game for the Bills didn’t really exist last weekend as wideout Sammy Watkins was missing with a foot injury. Quarterback Tyrod Taylor threw for just 119 yards by going 14 for 25, but the team’s running game was in good form. LeSean McCoy and Taylor combined for most of their 208 running yards and added three touchdowns on the ground. The Bills’ defense was much better than the first two weeks and they were able to pressure Arizona quarterback Carson Palmer by hitting him seven times and sacking him on five occasions.
They forced the Arizona offense into a total of five turnovers and scored a touchdown on a fumble return. The Bills have a brutal record at New England though with just one win in their past 15 trips there and a 6-8-1 record ATS. They’ll need a solid ground attack and tight defense to pull off an upset against the Patriots though. They’ll be facing a New England side that features injured quarterbacks Jimmy Garoppolo and Jacoby Brissett while Tom Brady serves the final outing of his four-game suspension. The New England defense might be slightly vulnerable to the Bills’ rushing game as it’s given up 4.4 yards a carry so far this season.
New England Patriots – A Closer Look:
The Patriots had to rely on their third-string quarterback last week as Jacoby Brissett was at the helm and didn’t let his team down in the 27-0 win over the Texans on Thursday. New England recovered a pair of Houston kickoff return fumbles and the defense was more or less perfect. However, head coach Bill Belichick may be running out of QB options as Brissett suffered a thumb injury against the Texans and might not be able to play this weekend. There’s been word that wideout Julian Edelman could start the game at quarterback if needed.
The Patriots have been successful on the ground as they’ve rushed the ball for an average of 150 yards a game over the first three outings. The defense has also been solid and will be focused on the Buffalo running game especially if Sammy Watkins misses the game. The Patriots have an excellent home record over the past few years and have built up a record of 19-2 over their past 21 encounters at Gillette stadium since 2014, including an ATS mark of 13-6-2. However, one of their two defeats came at the hands of Buffalo at the tail end of the 2014 campaign.
Next up for both teams:
- Buffalo is in Los Angeles Oct. 9th
- New England is at Cleveland Oct. 9th
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by Ian S. Palmer